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Predictions (S & P 500)

Long Only, Logistic Regression (LR), Naive Bayes (NB)


Date Closing Price Pct. Lag 1Day Pct. Lead 1Day is Effectiveness 1Day(Long Only) Actual Direction Positive Probability(LR) Predicted Direction(LR) Predicted Direction(NB) Accuracy(LR) Accuracy(NB) Effectiveness 1Day(LR) Effectiveness 1Day(NB)
2018-02-23 2747.3 1.603 Unknown Unknown 0.4323 Negative Negative Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown
2018-02-22 2703.96 0.097 1.603 Positive 0.4563 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -1.603 -1.603
2018-02-21 2701.33 -0.55 0.097 Positive 0.4556 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.097 -0.097
2018-02-20 2716.26 -0.584 -0.55 Negative 0.4978 Negative Positive True Negative False Positive 0.55 -0.55
2018-02-16 2732.22 0.037 -0.584 Negative 0.4846 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.584 0.584
2018-02-15 2731.2 1.207 0.037 Positive 0.4500 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.037 -0.037
2018-02-14 2698.63 1.34 1.207 Positive 0.5136 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 1.207 -1.207
2018-02-13 2662.94 0.261 1.34 Positive 0.5357 Positive Positive True Positive True Positive 1.34 1.34
2018-02-12 2656.0 1.391 0.261 Positive 0.5150 Positive Positive True Positive True Positive 0.261 0.261
2018-02-09 2619.55 1.494 1.391 Positive 0.5627 Positive Positive True Positive True Positive 1.391 1.391
2018-02-08 2581.0 -3.754 1.494 Positive 0.6307 Positive Positive True Positive True Positive 1.494 1.494
2018-02-07 2681.66 -0.5 -3.754 Negative 0.5429 Positive Positive False Positive False Positive -3.754 -3.754
2018-02-06 2695.14 1.744 -0.5 Negative 0.5269 Positive Positive False Positive False Positive -0.5 -0.5
2018-02-05 2648.94 -4.098 1.744 Positive 0.6243 Positive Positive True Positive True Positive 1.744 1.744
2018-02-02 2762.13 -2.121 -4.098 Negative 0.5563 Positive Positive False Positive False Positive -4.098 -4.098
2018-02-01 2821.98 -0.065 -2.121 Negative 0.5031 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -2.121 2.121
2018-01-31 2823.81 0.049 -0.065 Negative 0.5053 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.065 0.065
2018-01-30 2822.43 -1.09 0.049 Positive 0.5192 Positive Positive True Positive True Positive 0.049 0.049
2018-01-29 2853.53 -0.673 -1.09 Negative 0.4968 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 1.09 1.09
2018-01-26 2872.87 1.184 -0.673 Negative 0.4587 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.673 0.673
2018-01-25 2839.25 0.06 1.184 Positive 0.4944 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -1.184 -1.184
2018-01-24 2837.54 -0.056 0.06 Positive 0.4910 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.06 -0.06
2018-01-23 2839.13 0.217 -0.056 Negative 0.4721 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.056 0.056
2018-01-22 2832.97 0.807 0.217 Positive 0.4709 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.217 -0.217
2018-01-19 2810.3 0.439 0.807 Positive 0.4824 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.807 -0.807
2018-01-18 2798.03 -0.162 0.439 Positive 0.4891 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.439 -0.439
2018-01-17 2802.56 0.942 -0.162 Negative 0.4724 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.162 0.162
2018-01-16 2776.42 -0.352 0.942 Positive 0.4886 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.942 -0.942
2018-01-12 2786.24 0.675 -0.352 Negative 0.4613 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.352 0.352
2018-01-11 2767.56 0.703 0.675 Positive 0.4604 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.675 -0.675
2018-01-10 2748.23 -0.111 0.703 Positive 0.4870 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.703 -0.703
2018-01-09 2751.29 0.13 -0.111 Negative 0.4834 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.111 0.111
2018-01-08 2747.71 0.166 0.13 Positive 0.4811 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.13 -0.13
2018-01-05 2743.15 0.703 0.166 Positive 0.4792 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.166 -0.166
2018-01-04 2723.99 0.403 0.703 Positive 0.4846 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.703 -0.703
2018-01-03 2713.06 0.64 0.403 Positive 0.4800 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.403 -0.403
2018-01-02 2695.81 0.83 0.64 Positive 0.4909 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.64 -0.64

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