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Predictions (S & P 500)

Long Only, Logistic Regression (LR), Naive Bayes (NB)


Date Closing Price Pct. Lag 1Day Pct. Lead 1Day is Effectiveness 1Day(Long Only) Actual Direction Positive Probability(LR) Predicted Direction(LR) Predicted Direction(NB) Accuracy(LR) Accuracy(NB) Effectiveness 1Day(LR) Effectiveness 1Day(NB)
2018-04-20 2670.14 -0.854 Unknown Unknown 0.5188 Positive Positive Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown
2018-04-19 2693.13 -0.573 -0.854 Negative 0.4900 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.854 0.854
2018-04-18 2708.64 0.083 -0.573 Negative 0.4603 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.573 0.573
2018-04-17 2706.39 1.066 0.083 Positive 0.4783 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.083 -0.083
2018-04-16 2677.84 0.811 1.066 Positive 0.4812 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -1.066 -1.066
2018-04-13 2656.3 -0.289 0.811 Positive 0.4880 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.811 -0.811
2018-04-12 2663.99 0.825 -0.289 Negative 0.4629 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.289 0.289
2018-04-11 2642.19 -0.553 0.825 Positive 0.4918 Negative Positive False Negative True Positive -0.825 0.825
2018-04-10 2656.87 1.673 -0.553 Negative 0.4434 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.553 0.553
2018-04-09 2613.16 0.334 1.673 Positive 0.5015 Positive Positive True Positive True Positive 1.673 1.673
2018-04-06 2604.47 -2.192 0.334 Positive 0.5542 Positive Positive True Positive True Positive 0.334 0.334
2018-04-05 2662.84 0.686 -2.192 Negative 0.4472 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 2.192 2.192
2018-04-04 2644.69 1.157 0.686 Positive 0.4700 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.686 -0.686
2018-04-03 2614.45 1.261 1.157 Positive 0.5231 Positive Positive True Positive True Positive 1.157 1.157
2018-04-02 2581.88 -2.234 1.261 Positive 0.5641 Positive Positive True Positive True Positive 1.261 1.261
2018-03-29 2640.87 1.377 -2.234 Negative 0.5119 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -2.234 2.234
2018-03-28 2605.0 -0.292 1.377 Positive 0.5624 Positive Positive True Positive True Positive 1.377 1.377
2018-03-27 2612.62 -1.728 -0.292 Negative 0.5448 Positive Positive False Positive False Positive -0.292 -0.292
2018-03-26 2658.55 2.716 -1.728 Negative 0.4910 Negative Positive True Negative False Positive 1.728 -1.728
2018-03-23 2588.26 -2.097 2.716 Positive 0.5984 Positive Positive True Positive True Positive 2.716 2.716
2018-03-22 2643.69 -2.516 -2.097 Negative 0.5802 Positive Positive False Positive False Positive -2.097 -2.097
2018-03-21 2711.93 -0.184 -2.516 Negative 0.5255 Positive Positive False Positive False Positive -2.516 -2.516
2018-03-20 2716.94 0.148 -0.184 Negative 0.5080 Positive Positive False Positive False Positive -0.184 -0.184
2018-03-19 2712.92 -1.42 0.148 Positive 0.5210 Positive Positive True Positive True Positive 0.148 0.148
2018-03-16 2752.01 0.17 -1.42 Negative 0.4875 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 1.42 1.42
2018-03-15 2747.33 -0.078 0.17 Positive 0.4928 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.17 -0.17
2018-03-14 2749.48 -0.572 -0.078 Negative 0.4967 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.078 0.078
2018-03-13 2765.31 -0.636 -0.572 Negative 0.4870 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.572 0.572
2018-03-12 2783.02 -0.127 -0.636 Negative 0.4771 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.636 0.636
2018-03-09 2786.57 1.738 -0.127 Negative 0.4672 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.127 0.127
2018-03-08 2738.97 0.446 1.738 Positive 0.5234 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 1.738 -1.738
2018-03-07 2726.8 -0.048 0.446 Positive 0.5224 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.446 -0.446
2018-03-06 2728.12 0.264 -0.048 Negative 0.4894 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.048 0.048
2018-03-05 2720.94 1.103 0.264 Positive 0.4758 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.264 -0.264
2018-03-02 2691.25 0.507 1.103 Positive 0.4974 Negative Positive False Negative True Positive -1.103 1.103
2018-03-01 2677.67 -1.332 0.507 Positive 0.5423 Positive Positive True Positive True Positive 0.507 0.507
2018-02-28 2713.83 -1.11 -1.332 Negative 0.5435 Positive Positive False Positive False Positive -1.332 -1.332
2018-02-27 2744.28 -1.271 -1.11 Negative 0.5048 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -1.11 1.11
2018-02-26 2779.6 1.176 -1.271 Negative 0.4299 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 1.271 1.271
2018-02-23 2747.3 1.603 1.176 Positive 0.4323 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -1.176 -1.176
2018-02-22 2703.96 0.097 1.603 Positive 0.4563 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -1.603 -1.603
2018-02-21 2701.33 -0.55 0.097 Positive 0.4556 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.097 -0.097
2018-02-20 2716.26 -0.584 -0.55 Negative 0.4978 Negative Positive True Negative False Positive 0.55 -0.55
2018-02-16 2732.22 0.037 -0.584 Negative 0.4846 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.584 0.584
2018-02-15 2731.2 1.207 0.037 Positive 0.4500 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.037 -0.037
2018-02-14 2698.63 1.34 1.207 Positive 0.5136 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 1.207 -1.207
2018-02-13 2662.94 0.261 1.34 Positive 0.5357 Positive Positive True Positive True Positive 1.34 1.34
2018-02-12 2656.0 1.391 0.261 Positive 0.5150 Positive Positive True Positive True Positive 0.261 0.261
2018-02-09 2619.55 1.494 1.391 Positive 0.5627 Positive Positive True Positive True Positive 1.391 1.391
2018-02-08 2581.0 -3.754 1.494 Positive 0.6307 Positive Positive True Positive True Positive 1.494 1.494
2018-02-07 2681.66 -0.5 -3.754 Negative 0.5429 Positive Positive False Positive False Positive -3.754 -3.754
2018-02-06 2695.14 1.744 -0.5 Negative 0.5269 Positive Positive False Positive False Positive -0.5 -0.5
2018-02-05 2648.94 -4.098 1.744 Positive 0.6243 Positive Positive True Positive True Positive 1.744 1.744
2018-02-02 2762.13 -2.121 -4.098 Negative 0.5563 Positive Positive False Positive False Positive -4.098 -4.098
2018-02-01 2821.98 -0.065 -2.121 Negative 0.5031 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -2.121 2.121
2018-01-31 2823.81 0.049 -0.065 Negative 0.5053 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.065 0.065
2018-01-30 2822.43 -1.09 0.049 Positive 0.5192 Positive Positive True Positive True Positive 0.049 0.049
2018-01-29 2853.53 -0.673 -1.09 Negative 0.4968 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 1.09 1.09
2018-01-26 2872.87 1.184 -0.673 Negative 0.4587 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.673 0.673
2018-01-25 2839.25 0.06 1.184 Positive 0.4944 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -1.184 -1.184
2018-01-24 2837.54 -0.056 0.06 Positive 0.4910 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.06 -0.06
2018-01-23 2839.13 0.217 -0.056 Negative 0.4721 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.056 0.056
2018-01-22 2832.97 0.807 0.217 Positive 0.4709 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.217 -0.217
2018-01-19 2810.3 0.439 0.807 Positive 0.4824 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.807 -0.807
2018-01-18 2798.03 -0.162 0.439 Positive 0.4891 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.439 -0.439
2018-01-17 2802.56 0.942 -0.162 Negative 0.4724 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.162 0.162
2018-01-16 2776.42 -0.352 0.942 Positive 0.4886 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.942 -0.942
2018-01-12 2786.24 0.675 -0.352 Negative 0.4613 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.352 0.352
2018-01-11 2767.56 0.703 0.675 Positive 0.4604 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.675 -0.675
2018-01-10 2748.23 -0.111 0.703 Positive 0.4870 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.703 -0.703
2018-01-09 2751.29 0.13 -0.111 Negative 0.4834 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.111 0.111
2018-01-08 2747.71 0.166 0.13 Positive 0.4811 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.13 -0.13
2018-01-05 2743.15 0.703 0.166 Positive 0.4792 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.166 -0.166
2018-01-04 2723.99 0.403 0.703 Positive 0.4846 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.703 -0.703
2018-01-03 2713.06 0.64 0.403 Positive 0.4800 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.403 -0.403
2018-01-02 2695.81 0.83 0.64 Positive 0.4909 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.64 -0.64

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