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Predictions (S & P 500)

Long Only, Logistic Regression (LR), Naive Bayes (NB)


Date Closing Price Pct. Lag 1Day Pct. Lead 1Day is Effectiveness 1Day(Long Only) Actual Direction Positive Probability(LR) Predicted Direction(LR) Predicted Direction(NB) Accuracy(LR) Accuracy(NB) Effectiveness 1Day(LR) Effectiveness 1Day(NB)
2017-06-27 2422.74 -0.67 Unknown Unknown 0.5129 Positive Negative Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown
2017-06-26 2439.07 0.032 -0.67 Negative 0.5002 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.67 0.67
2017-06-23 2438.3 0.156 0.032 Positive 0.4993 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.032 -0.032
2017-06-22 2434.5 -0.046 0.156 Positive 0.5028 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.156 -0.156
2017-06-21 2435.61 -0.058 -0.046 Negative 0.5080 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.046 0.046
2017-06-20 2437.03 -0.67 -0.058 Negative 0.5064 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.058 0.058
2017-06-19 2453.46 0.835 -0.67 Negative 0.4857 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.67 0.67
2017-06-16 2433.15 0.028 0.835 Positive 0.5041 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.835 -0.835
2017-06-15 2432.46 -0.224 0.028 Positive 0.5098 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.028 -0.028
2017-06-14 2437.92 -0.1 -0.224 Negative 0.5043 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.224 0.224
2017-06-13 2440.35 0.451 -0.1 Negative 0.4969 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.1 0.1
2017-06-12 2429.39 -0.098 0.451 Positive 0.5017 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.451 -0.451
2017-06-09 2431.77 -0.083 -0.098 Negative 0.5005 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.098 0.098
2017-06-08 2433.79 0.027 -0.083 Negative 0.4951 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.083 0.083
2017-06-07 2433.14 0.157 0.027 Positive 0.4971 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.027 -0.027
2017-06-06 2429.33 -0.278 0.157 Positive 0.5023 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.157 -0.157
2017-06-05 2436.1 -0.122 -0.278 Negative 0.4925 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.278 0.278
2017-06-02 2439.07 0.371 -0.122 Negative 0.4794 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.122 0.122
2017-06-01 2430.06 0.757 0.371 Positive 0.4763 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.371 -0.371
2017-05-31 2411.8 -0.046 0.757 Positive 0.4872 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.757 -0.757
2017-05-30 2412.91 -0.12 -0.046 Negative 0.4843 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.046 0.046
2017-05-26 2415.82 0.031 -0.12 Negative 0.4972 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.12 0.12
2017-05-25 2415.07 0.444 0.031 Positive 0.4949 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.031 -0.031
2017-05-24 2404.39 0.249 0.444 Positive 0.4977 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.444 -0.444
2017-05-23 2398.42 0.184 0.249 Positive 0.5003 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.249 -0.249
2017-05-22 2394.02 0.516 0.184 Positive 0.4914 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.184 -0.184
2017-05-19 2381.73 0.677 0.516 Positive 0.4918 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.516 -0.516
2017-05-18 2365.72 0.369 0.677 Positive 0.5172 Positive Positive True Positive True Positive 0.677 0.677
2017-05-17 2357.03 -1.818 0.369 Positive 0.5389 Positive Positive True Positive True Positive 0.369 0.369
2017-05-16 2400.67 -0.069 -1.818 Negative 0.4973 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 1.818 1.818
2017-05-15 2402.32 0.478 -0.069 Negative 0.4948 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.069 0.069
2017-05-12 2390.9 -0.148 0.478 Positive 0.5071 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.478 -0.478
2017-05-11 2394.44 -0.216 -0.148 Negative 0.5054 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.148 0.148
2017-05-10 2399.63 0.113 -0.216 Negative 0.5004 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.216 0.216
2017-05-09 2396.92 -0.103 0.113 Positive 0.5049 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.113 -0.113
2017-05-08 2399.38 0.004 -0.103 Negative 0.5005 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.103 0.103
2017-05-05 2399.29 0.409 0.004 Positive 0.4965 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.004 -0.004
2017-05-04 2389.52 0.058 0.409 Positive 0.4992 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.409 -0.409
2017-05-03 2388.13 -0.127 0.058 Positive 0.4895 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.058 -0.058
2017-05-02 2391.17 0.119 -0.127 Negative 0.4880 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.127 0.127
2017-05-01 2388.33 0.173 0.119 Positive 0.4829 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.119 -0.119
2017-04-28 2384.2 -0.191 0.173 Positive 0.4913 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.173 -0.173
2017-04-27 2388.77 0.055 -0.191 Negative 0.4931 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.191 0.191
2017-04-26 2387.45 -0.049 0.055 Positive 0.4814 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.055 -0.055
2017-04-25 2388.61 0.609 -0.049 Negative 0.4765 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.049 0.049
2017-04-24 2374.15 1.084 0.609 Positive 0.4844 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.609 -0.609
2017-04-21 2348.69 -0.304 1.084 Positive 0.5037 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 1.084 -1.084
2017-04-20 2355.84 0.756 -0.304 Negative 0.4951 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.304 0.304
2017-04-19 2338.17 -0.172 0.756 Positive 0.5130 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.756 -0.756
2017-04-18 2342.19 -0.29 -0.172 Negative 0.5029 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.172 0.172
2017-04-17 2349.01 0.861 -0.29 Negative 0.4972 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.29 0.29
2017-04-13 2328.95 -0.681 0.861 Positive 0.5216 Positive Positive True Positive True Positive 0.861 0.861
2017-04-12 2344.93 -0.376 -0.681 Negative 0.5140 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.681 0.681
2017-04-11 2353.78 -0.143 -0.376 Negative 0.5079 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.376 0.376
2017-04-10 2357.16 0.069 -0.143 Negative 0.5011 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.143 0.143
2017-04-07 2355.54 -0.083 0.069 Positive 0.5008 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.069 -0.069
2017-04-06 2357.49 0.193 -0.083 Negative 0.4922 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.083 0.083
2017-04-05 2352.95 -0.305 0.193 Positive 0.4997 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.193 -0.193
2017-04-04 2360.16 0.056 -0.305 Negative 0.4955 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.305 0.305
2017-04-03 2358.84 -0.164 0.056 Positive 0.5009 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.056 -0.056
2017-03-31 2362.72 -0.226 -0.164 Negative 0.4986 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.164 0.164
2017-03-30 2368.06 0.294 -0.226 Negative 0.5025 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.226 0.226
2017-03-29 2361.13 0.109 0.294 Positive 0.5035 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.294 -0.294
2017-03-28 2358.57 0.725 0.109 Positive 0.5008 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.109 -0.109
2017-03-27 2341.59 -0.102 0.725 Positive 0.5178 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.725 -0.725
2017-03-24 2343.98 -0.084 -0.102 Negative 0.5058 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.102 0.102
2017-03-23 2345.96 -0.106 -0.084 Negative 0.5052 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.084 0.084
2017-03-22 2348.45 0.189 -0.106 Negative 0.5117 Positive Positive False Positive False Positive -0.106 -0.106
2017-03-21 2344.02 -1.241 0.189 Positive 0.5229 Positive Positive True Positive True Positive 0.189 0.189
2017-03-20 2373.47 -0.201 -1.241 Negative 0.5032 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -1.241 1.241
2017-03-17 2378.25 -0.131 -0.201 Negative 0.5028 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.201 0.201
2017-03-16 2381.38 -0.163 -0.131 Negative 0.4987 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.131 0.131
2017-03-15 2385.26 0.837 -0.163 Negative 0.4950 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.163 0.163
2017-03-14 2365.45 -0.338 0.837 Positive 0.5145 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.837 -0.837
2017-03-13 2373.47 0.037 -0.338 Negative 0.5104 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.338 0.338
2017-03-10 2372.6 0.327 0.037 Positive 0.4942 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.037 -0.037
2017-03-09 2364.87 0.08 0.327 Positive 0.5038 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.327 -0.327
2017-03-08 2362.98 -0.228 0.08 Positive 0.5091 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.08 -0.08
2017-03-07 2368.39 -0.291 -0.228 Negative 0.5069 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.228 0.228
2017-03-06 2375.31 -0.328 -0.291 Negative 0.5081 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.291 0.291
2017-03-03 2383.12 0.05 -0.328 Negative 0.5065 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.328 0.328
2017-03-02 2381.92 -0.586 0.05 Positive 0.4976 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.05 -0.05
2017-03-01 2395.96 1.367 -0.586 Negative 0.4757 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.586 0.586
2017-02-28 2363.64 -0.258 1.367 Positive 0.5043 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 1.367 -1.367
2017-02-27 2369.75 0.102 -0.258 Negative 0.4937 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.258 0.258
2017-02-24 2367.34 0.149 0.102 Positive 0.4924 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.102 -0.102
2017-02-23 2363.81 0.042 0.149 Positive 0.4914 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.149 -0.149
2017-02-22 2362.82 -0.108 0.042 Positive 0.4851 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.042 -0.042
2017-02-21 2365.38 0.605 -0.108 Negative 0.4719 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.108 0.108
2017-02-17 2351.16 0.168 0.605 Positive 0.4835 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.605 -0.605
2017-02-16 2347.22 -0.086 0.168 Positive 0.4854 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.168 -0.168
2017-02-15 2349.25 0.499 -0.086 Negative 0.4814 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.086 0.086
2017-02-14 2337.58 0.401 0.499 Positive 0.4804 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.499 -0.499
2017-02-13 2328.25 0.525 0.401 Positive 0.4807 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.401 -0.401
2017-02-10 2316.1 0.357 0.525 Positive 0.4845 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.525 -0.525
2017-02-09 2307.87 0.575 0.357 Positive 0.4859 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.357 -0.357
2017-02-08 2294.67 0.069 0.575 Positive 0.5046 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.575 -0.575
2017-02-07 2293.08 0.023 0.069 Positive 0.5077 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.069 -0.069
2017-02-06 2292.56 -0.212 0.023 Positive 0.5060 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.023 -0.023
2017-02-03 2297.42 0.726 -0.212 Negative 0.4874 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.212 0.212
2017-02-02 2280.85 0.057 0.726 Positive 0.4934 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.726 -0.726
2017-02-01 2279.55 0.03 0.057 Positive 0.4971 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.057 -0.057
2017-01-31 2278.87 -0.089 0.03 Positive 0.4986 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.03 -0.03
2017-01-30 2280.9 -0.601 -0.089 Negative 0.5089 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.089 0.089
2017-01-27 2294.69 -0.087 -0.601 Negative 0.4986 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.601 0.601
2017-01-26 2296.68 -0.074 -0.087 Negative 0.4949 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.087 0.087
2017-01-25 2298.37 0.803 -0.074 Negative 0.4831 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.074 0.074
2017-01-24 2280.07 0.656 0.803 Positive 0.4954 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.803 -0.803
2017-01-23 2265.2 -0.269 0.656 Positive 0.5059 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.656 -0.656
2017-01-20 2271.31 0.337 -0.269 Negative 0.4981 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.269 0.269
2017-01-19 2263.69 -0.361 0.337 Positive 0.5106 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.337 -0.337
2017-01-18 2271.89 0.176 -0.361 Negative 0.5005 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.361 0.361
2017-01-17 2267.89 -0.297 0.176 Positive 0.5063 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.176 -0.176
2017-01-13 2274.64 0.185 -0.297 Negative 0.4948 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.297 0.297
2017-01-12 2270.44 -0.214 0.185 Positive 0.4897 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.185 -0.185
2017-01-11 2275.32 0.283 -0.214 Negative 0.4890 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.214 0.214
2017-01-10 2268.9 0.0 0.283 Positive 0.4968 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.283 -0.283
2017-01-09 2268.9 -0.355 0.0 Negative 0.5075 Positive Negative True Negative True Negative 0.0 -0.0
2017-01-06 2276.98 0.352 -0.355 Negative 0.4975 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.355 0.355
2017-01-05 2269.0 -0.077 0.352 Positive 0.4995 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.352 -0.352
2017-01-04 2270.75 0.572 -0.077 Negative 0.4889 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.077 0.077
2017-01-03 2257.83 0.849 0.572 Positive 0.4970 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.572 -0.572
For 2017:
Naive-Bayes: Positive, Up,   Prediction Count is 5
Naive-Bayes: Negative, Down, Prediciton Count is 116
Naive-Bayes: Total Accuracy is 50.0%
Naive-Bayes: Positive, Up,   effectiveness is 0.398%
Naive-Bayes: Long-only effectiveness is 0.0647190082644628%
Naive-Bayes: Negative, Down, effectiveness is 0.05035344827586204%
For 2017:
Logistic-Regression: Positive, Up,   Prediction Count is 52
Logistic-Regression: Negative, Down, Prediciton Count is 69
Logistic-Regression: Positive Accuracy is 56.0%
Logistic-Regression: Negative Accuracy is 49.0%
Logistic-Regression: Total Accuracy is 52.0%
Logistic-Regression: Positive, Up,   effectiveness is 0.11561111111111107%
Logistic-Regression: Long-only effectiveness is 0.0647190082644628%
Logistic-Regression: Negative, Down, effectiveness is 0.023701492537313434%

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