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Predictions (S & P 500)

Long Only, Logistic Regression (LR), Naive Bayes (NB)


Date Closing Price Pct. Lag 1Day Pct. Lead 1Day is Effectiveness 1Day(Long Only) Actual Direction Positive Probability(LR) Predicted Direction(LR) Predicted Direction(NB) Accuracy(LR) Accuracy(NB) Effectiveness 1Day(LR) Effectiveness 1Day(NB)
2017-05-22 2394.02 0.516 Unknown Unknown 0.4912 Negative Negative Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown
2017-05-19 2381.73 0.677 0.516 Positive 0.4916 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.516 -0.516
2017-05-18 2365.72 0.369 0.677 Positive 0.5175 Positive Positive True Positive True Positive 0.677 0.677
2017-05-17 2357.03 -1.818 0.369 Positive 0.5389 Positive Positive True Positive True Positive 0.369 0.369
2017-05-16 2400.67 -0.069 -1.818 Negative 0.4971 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 1.818 1.818
2017-05-15 2402.32 0.478 -0.069 Negative 0.4948 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.069 0.069
2017-05-12 2390.9 -0.148 0.478 Positive 0.5071 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.478 -0.478
2017-05-11 2394.44 -0.216 -0.148 Negative 0.5054 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.148 0.148
2017-05-10 2399.63 0.113 -0.216 Negative 0.5004 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.216 0.216
2017-05-09 2396.92 -0.103 0.113 Positive 0.5049 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.113 -0.113
2017-05-08 2399.38 0.004 -0.103 Negative 0.5005 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.103 0.103
2017-05-05 2399.29 0.409 0.004 Positive 0.4965 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.004 -0.004
2017-05-04 2389.52 0.058 0.409 Positive 0.4991 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.409 -0.409
2017-05-03 2388.13 -0.127 0.058 Positive 0.4893 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.058 -0.058
2017-05-02 2391.17 0.119 -0.127 Negative 0.4878 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.127 0.127
2017-05-01 2388.33 0.173 0.119 Positive 0.4826 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.119 -0.119
2017-04-28 2384.2 -0.191 0.173 Positive 0.4911 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.173 -0.173
2017-04-27 2388.77 0.055 -0.191 Negative 0.4931 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.191 0.191
2017-04-26 2387.45 -0.049 0.055 Positive 0.4811 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.055 -0.055
2017-04-25 2388.61 0.609 -0.049 Negative 0.4763 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.049 0.049
2017-04-24 2374.15 1.084 0.609 Positive 0.4845 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.609 -0.609
2017-04-21 2348.69 -0.304 1.084 Positive 0.5035 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 1.084 -1.084
2017-04-20 2355.84 0.756 -0.304 Negative 0.4952 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.304 0.304
2017-04-19 2338.17 -0.172 0.756 Positive 0.5131 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.756 -0.756
2017-04-18 2342.19 -0.29 -0.172 Negative 0.5026 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.172 0.172
2017-04-17 2349.01 0.861 -0.29 Negative 0.4973 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.29 0.29
2017-04-13 2328.95 -0.681 0.861 Positive 0.5216 Positive Positive True Positive True Positive 0.861 0.861
2017-04-12 2344.93 -0.376 -0.681 Negative 0.5140 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.681 0.681
2017-04-11 2353.78 -0.143 -0.376 Negative 0.5079 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.376 0.376
2017-04-10 2357.16 0.069 -0.143 Negative 0.5010 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.143 0.143
2017-04-07 2355.54 -0.083 0.069 Positive 0.5006 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.069 -0.069
2017-04-06 2357.49 0.193 -0.083 Negative 0.4920 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.083 0.083
2017-04-05 2352.95 -0.305 0.193 Positive 0.4994 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.193 -0.193
2017-04-04 2360.16 0.056 -0.305 Negative 0.4954 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.305 0.305
2017-04-03 2358.84 -0.164 0.056 Positive 0.5008 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.056 -0.056
2017-03-31 2362.72 -0.226 -0.164 Negative 0.4985 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.164 0.164
2017-03-30 2368.06 0.294 -0.226 Negative 0.5026 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.226 0.226
2017-03-29 2361.13 0.109 0.294 Positive 0.5034 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.294 -0.294
2017-03-28 2358.57 0.725 0.109 Positive 0.5009 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.109 -0.109
2017-03-27 2341.59 -0.102 0.725 Positive 0.5179 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.725 -0.725
2017-03-24 2343.98 -0.084 -0.102 Negative 0.5056 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.102 0.102
2017-03-23 2345.96 -0.106 -0.084 Negative 0.5049 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.084 0.084
2017-03-22 2348.45 0.189 -0.106 Negative 0.5118 Positive Positive False Positive False Positive -0.106 -0.106
2017-03-21 2344.02 -1.241 0.189 Positive 0.5228 Positive Positive True Positive True Positive 0.189 0.189
2017-03-20 2373.47 -0.201 -1.241 Negative 0.5032 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -1.241 1.241
2017-03-17 2378.25 -0.131 -0.201 Negative 0.5028 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.201 0.201
2017-03-16 2381.38 -0.163 -0.131 Negative 0.4985 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.131 0.131
2017-03-15 2385.26 0.837 -0.163 Negative 0.4951 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.163 0.163
2017-03-14 2365.45 -0.338 0.837 Positive 0.5146 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.837 -0.837
2017-03-13 2373.47 0.037 -0.338 Negative 0.5104 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.338 0.338
2017-03-10 2372.6 0.327 0.037 Positive 0.4941 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.037 -0.037
2017-03-09 2364.87 0.08 0.327 Positive 0.5037 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.327 -0.327
2017-03-08 2362.98 -0.228 0.08 Positive 0.5091 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.08 -0.08
2017-03-07 2368.39 -0.291 -0.228 Negative 0.5068 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.228 0.228
2017-03-06 2375.31 -0.328 -0.291 Negative 0.5081 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.291 0.291
2017-03-03 2383.12 0.05 -0.328 Negative 0.5067 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.328 0.328
2017-03-02 2381.92 -0.586 0.05 Positive 0.4974 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.05 -0.05
2017-03-01 2395.96 1.367 -0.586 Negative 0.4757 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.586 0.586
2017-02-28 2363.64 -0.258 1.367 Positive 0.5043 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 1.367 -1.367
2017-02-27 2369.75 0.102 -0.258 Negative 0.4936 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.258 0.258
2017-02-24 2367.34 0.149 0.102 Positive 0.4924 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.102 -0.102
2017-02-23 2363.81 0.042 0.149 Positive 0.4913 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.149 -0.149
2017-02-22 2362.82 -0.108 0.042 Positive 0.4848 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.042 -0.042
2017-02-21 2365.38 0.605 -0.108 Negative 0.4717 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.108 0.108
2017-02-17 2351.16 0.168 0.605 Positive 0.4834 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.605 -0.605
2017-02-16 2347.22 -0.086 0.168 Positive 0.4852 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.168 -0.168
2017-02-15 2349.25 0.499 -0.086 Negative 0.4813 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.086 0.086
2017-02-14 2337.58 0.401 0.499 Positive 0.4803 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.499 -0.499
2017-02-13 2328.25 0.525 0.401 Positive 0.4806 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.401 -0.401
2017-02-10 2316.1 0.357 0.525 Positive 0.4843 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.525 -0.525
2017-02-09 2307.87 0.575 0.357 Positive 0.4857 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.357 -0.357
2017-02-08 2294.67 0.069 0.575 Positive 0.5047 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.575 -0.575
2017-02-07 2293.08 0.023 0.069 Positive 0.5079 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.069 -0.069
2017-02-06 2292.56 -0.212 0.023 Positive 0.5059 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.023 -0.023
2017-02-03 2297.42 0.726 -0.212 Negative 0.4873 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.212 0.212
2017-02-02 2280.85 0.057 0.726 Positive 0.4932 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.726 -0.726
2017-02-01 2279.55 0.03 0.057 Positive 0.4970 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.057 -0.057
2017-01-31 2278.87 -0.089 0.03 Positive 0.4985 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.03 -0.03
2017-01-30 2280.9 -0.601 -0.089 Negative 0.5089 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.089 0.089
2017-01-27 2294.69 -0.087 -0.601 Negative 0.4987 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.601 0.601
2017-01-26 2296.68 -0.074 -0.087 Negative 0.4948 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.087 0.087
2017-01-25 2298.37 0.803 -0.074 Negative 0.4830 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.074 0.074
2017-01-24 2280.07 0.656 0.803 Positive 0.4954 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.803 -0.803
2017-01-23 2265.2 -0.269 0.656 Positive 0.5058 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.656 -0.656
2017-01-20 2271.31 0.337 -0.269 Negative 0.4981 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.269 0.269
2017-01-19 2263.69 -0.361 0.337 Positive 0.5106 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.337 -0.337
2017-01-18 2271.89 0.176 -0.361 Negative 0.5005 Positive Negative False Positive True Negative -0.361 0.361
2017-01-17 2267.89 -0.297 0.176 Positive 0.5063 Positive Negative True Positive False Negative 0.176 -0.176
2017-01-13 2274.64 0.185 -0.297 Negative 0.4947 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.297 0.297
2017-01-12 2270.44 -0.214 0.185 Positive 0.4894 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.185 -0.185
2017-01-11 2275.32 0.283 -0.214 Negative 0.4889 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.214 0.214
2017-01-10 2268.9 0.0 0.283 Positive 0.4967 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.283 -0.283
2017-01-09 2268.9 -0.355 0.0 Negative 0.5075 Positive Negative True Negative True Negative 0.0 -0.0
2017-01-06 2276.98 0.352 -0.355 Negative 0.4976 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.355 0.355
2017-01-05 2269.0 -0.077 0.352 Positive 0.4994 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.352 -0.352
2017-01-04 2270.75 0.572 -0.077 Negative 0.4887 Negative Negative True Negative True Negative 0.077 0.077
2017-01-03 2257.83 0.849 0.572 Positive 0.4970 Negative Negative False Negative False Negative -0.572 -0.572
For 2017:
Naive-Bayes: Positive, Up,   Prediction Count is 5
Naive-Bayes: Negative, Down, Prediciton Count is 92
Naive-Bayes: Total Accuracy is 51.0%
Naive-Bayes: Positive, Up,   effectiveness is 0.398%
Naive-Bayes: Long-only effectiveness is 0.06138144329896906%
Naive-Bayes: Negative, Down, effectiveness is 0.04308695652173912%
For 2017:
Logistic-Regression: Positive, Up,   Prediction Count is 42
Logistic-Regression: Negative, Down, Prediciton Count is 55
Logistic-Regression: Positive Accuracy is 55.0%
Logistic-Regression: Negative Accuracy is 49.0%
Logistic-Regression: Total Accuracy is 52.0%
Logistic-Regression: Positive, Up,   effectiveness is 0.11146511627906976%
Logistic-Regression: Long-only effectiveness is 0.06138144329896906%
Logistic-Regression: Negative, Down, effectiveness is 0.02150000000000001%

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